The Lombard Review

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Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Special Report

Black Friday: Buy now, get a refund later?

Contingent refunds on duties

Economy

One speech that flipped the Fed odds

December odds swing on one speech

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Beef, tariffs and the holiday table

Food-tariff rollback pass-through

Politics

Trump cuts tariffs on beef and coffee

Food tariff rollback

Tech

Nvidia's $57bn quarter doesn't end the bubble debate

Beat fails to calm capex fears

Markets & Finance

AI's biggest spenders feel the credit squeeze

Supply indigestion in IG tech

Politics

The longest shutdown's lasting cost

Unrecovered federal activity

Special Report

Singles' Day: A truce, but will China shop?

De-escalation vs weak demand

Markets & Finance

What if the tariffs have to be refunded?

Refund exposure if IEEPA falls

Tech

Meta borrows $30bn for AI

Debt funds AI capex

World

America and China call a truce, again

Tariff cut for export-control pause

Special Report

Halloween: The scariest balance sheets in AI

Circular vendor financing

Economy

The Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet

QT end timing

Economy

One inflation report in a data blackout

Single CPI release during shutdown

Tech

The AI money loop

Vendor equity funds customer capex

Markets & Finance

Money markets flash a warning

Repo pressure signals scarcity

Special Report

Diwali: The rupee hits a record low

50% tariff hits export flows

Markets & Finance

Are there more cockroaches in bank balance sheets?

Idiosyncratic losses as clustering

World

China's rare earth counterpunch

Escalation before summit

Business

First Brands and the debt nobody saw

Factoring hides leverage

World

Japan's new leader weakens the yen

Fiscal dovishness weakens yen

Economy

Flying blind: no jobs report

Private data substitutes for BLS

Economy

A shutdown would leave the Fed flying blind

Shutdown halts statistics

Politics

100% tariffs on drugs, unless you build here

Exemption tied to US plants

Markets & Finance

Gold breaks $3,700

Reserve demand overrides real yields

Economy

The Fed cuts, cautiously

Insurance easing; 50bp dissent

Economy

Trump's man joins the Fed

Appointments shift reaction function

Business

Oracle's $455bn order book

RPO requires debt-funded capex

Economy

911,000 jobs that never existed

Benchmark resets cut path

Special Report

Anniversary: Three years, what we got right

Three-year forecast audit

Economy

Just 22,000 jobs

Immigration curbs lower job trend

Politics

Appeals court rules against the tariffs

Appellate loss threatens receipts

Special Report

Labor Day: Hiring has stalled

Hiring freeze without layoffs

World

Nvidia's China problem

Guidance ex-China

Politics

Trump moves to fire a Fed governor

Governance risk lifts long end

Economy

Powell opens the door to cuts

Labour downside outweighs inflation

Economy

Switzerland's 39% shock

Concentrated export exposure

World

Nvidia pays Washington to sell to China

Government take on China sales

World

India hit with 50% tariffs

Secondary tariff on rupee assets

Special Report

Back to school: Tariffs hit the shopping list

Apparel/electronics cost pass-through

Economy

How 258,000 jobs disappeared

Late-response revision bias

Economy

Trump fires the jobs data chief

Statistical agency independence

Politics

Copper tariffs, with a twist

Tariff design shapes arbitrage

World

Europe settles for 15%

Euro reaction to asymmetric deal

Politics

Tariffs finally show up in prices

Tariffed categories reprice first

World

Japan's deal: 15% and $550bn

Investment pledges as tariff price

Business

Stablecoins get their rulebook

Reserve rules mirror 2a-7

Markets & Finance

Japan's bond market turns nervous

Fiscal-populism risk in long JGBs

Politics

Tariffs are raising $27bn a month

Duties ÷ imports as realised rate

Special Report

Prime Day: Four days of discounts, and tariffs

Import-price inflation in retail