The Lombard Review

Latest Headlines

Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Politics

Trump's tariff letters arrive

Unilateral rate notices

Special Report

Independence Day: The real cost of the "big beautiful bill"

Growth feedback assumptions

Personal Finance

The tax break that could spark a factory boom

100% expensing pulls investment forward

Politics

The debt ceiling rises by $5trn

TGA rebuild drains reserves

Economy

A divided Fed

Bimodal SEP distribution

U.S.

America bombs Iran. Oil falls

Contained retaliation deflates premium

Markets & Finance

Stablecoins could become big buyers of Treasuries

Reserve mandates create bill demand

World

Oil jumps as Israel strikes Iran

Oil shock into inflation swaps

Economy

Tariffs still aren't showing up in prices

Pass-through timing

World

China's rare earths are its best weapon

Export controls vs tariffs

Politics

Steel tariffs double

Input cost surge for fabricators

Markets & Finance

The tax aimed at foreign investors

Withholding surcharge on US assets

Politics

A court strikes down Trump's tariffs, for now

Legal uncertainty as volatility factor

Economy

The "big beautiful bill" and its big bill

Tax extension without offsets

Special Report

Memorial Day: Downgraded, and still spending

Rating loss meets fiscal bill

Business

Walmart warns prices are going up

Retailer absorption vs price hikes

Markets & Finance

America loses its last AAA rating

Rating symmetry across agencies

Politics

Where are the tariff price rises?

Inventory buffers delay pass-through

World

America and China call a truce

90-day de-escalation

World

Britain gets the first trade deal

Quota-based auto relief

Markets & Finance

China holds the yuan steady

PBoC resists competitive devaluation

Economy

GDP shrank. The economy didn't

Domestic demand vs headline

Economy

The import rush that will shrink GDP

Front-running distorts net exports

Tech

Tariffs haven't dented Big Tech's AI spending

AI capex insensitive to trade shock

Markets & Finance

"Sell America": are foreign investors walking away?

Term premium on governance risk

Markets & Finance

The dollar stops acting like a safe haven

Dollar and yields decouple

Politics

145%: a tariff that stops trade

Prohibitive tariffs halt bilateral trade

Special Report

Tax Day: The biggest tax rise in decades isn't in the tax code

Tariffs as consumption tax

Business

Companies stop giving forecasts

Uncertainty forces guidance suspension

Markets & Finance

Stocks and bonds fall together. That's the problem

Treasuries sell off with equities

Politics

The formula behind Trump's tariffs

Bilateral deficits as tariff rates

Politics

Liberation Day: what to expect

Reciprocal tariff scenario tree

Business

Carmakers face 25% tariffs

OEM margins vs parts origin

Markets & Finance

The Fed quietly stops shrinking its bond pile

Near-halt of Treasury runoff

Economy

The Fed sees slower growth and higher prices

Growth down, inflation up

World

Germany rewrites its debt rules

Infrastructure fund outside fiscal rule

Markets & Finance

The market's biggest names fall hardest

Growth scare derates concentration

Markets & Finance

Germany opens its wallet, and bonds tumble

Debt-brake reform reprices Bunds

Economy

The recession forecast caused by gold bars

Non-monetary gold distorts net exports

World

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico go live

USMCA content carve-outs

Business

Nvidia's margins slip

Ramp costs compress gross margin

Markets & Finance

Markets swap inflation fear for growth fear

Real-yield decline on activity data

Economy

January inflation strikes again

Start-of-year price resets

Politics

Why Trump counts VAT as a tariff

Border-adjusted taxes misread as tariffs

Politics

Steel tariffs squeeze American manufacturers

Input tariffs compress downstream margins

Special Report

Valentine's Day: America and Europe's trade breakup

Reciprocity threatens euro

Markets & Finance

Why the dollar isn't rising on tariffs

FX offset breaks down

Special Report

Super Bowl: $8m ads, gloomy shoppers

Spend vs survey divergence

Economy

600,000 jobs erased from the record

Annual benchmark rewrites 2024

Politics

Tariffs on, tariffs off

Threat-and-pause negotiation cycle