Established ✥ MMXXII
The Lombard Review

Markets & Finance

Bonds, stocks, currencies, credit and commodities: the latest analysis of financial markets.

Markets & Finance

The 10-year hits 5.1%, its highest since 2007

Higher base rate hits rollovers

Markets & Finance

The bond sell-off, explained

Term premium plus hike path

Economy

The rate hike the Fed can't avoid

Inflation persistence forces tightening

Markets & Finance

The 10-year nears 5% as oil nears $100

Energy-driven bear steepening

Markets & Finance

Warsh speaks, bonds sell

Chair signal reprices tens

Markets & Finance

The market bets on a Warsh hike

Hike odds from forward curve

Markets & Finance

Long-term rates climb as Iran talks stall

Diplomacy risk in 30Y

Special Report

Back to school: Borrowing costs top 5%

Long-end rout hits borrowing

Markets & Finance

Banks brace for higher rates

Asset repricing vs deposit betas

Business

The peace deal collapses, and oil jumps

Oil shock re-priced into swaps

Business

The tariff refund boost to earnings

Earnings quality of refunds

Markets & Finance

Tariff refunds mean more government borrowing

Refunds swell bill supply

Markets & Finance

Is oil being priced in yuan now?

Settlement currency migration

Markets & Finance

Peace, maybe: how markets price it

Scenario-weighted oil path

Markets & Finance

$35bn of refunds, and where it goes

Cash windfall allocation

World

Iran charges ships a toll, in yuan

Non-dollar settlement for transit

Markets & Finance

Who deserves the tariff refund?

Downstream buyers claim refunds

Markets & Finance

The refunds that will add to America's borrowing

Refunds raise bill issuance

Special Report

Tax Day: Refunds from the IRS — and from Customs

IRS and CBP refunds hit cash

Markets & Finance

A ceasefire, and oil falls

Oil premium half-life

Markets & Finance

What bond markets say about the oil shock

Breakevens up, reals down

Markets & Finance

Tariffs go up, refunds go out

Refund order vs rate increase

Markets & Finance

Who gets the $166bn tariff refund?

Importer balance sheets gain claim

Special Report

Lunar New Year: China keeps the yuan steady

Fixing management in legal limbo

Politics

Tariffs raise $30bn a month. Not for long?

Refund risk on ~$30bn monthly receipts

Markets & Finance

The dollar's Warsh moment

Chair-regime premium in FX

World

The yen nears Japan's line in the sand

Pace-based intervention trigger

Markets & Finance

Banks cash in on chaos

Markets revenue offsets NII

Markets & Finance

Japan's 30-year bond hits a record

Life-insurer demand gap

Economy

The job market's confusing signals

Missing months break SA filters

Markets & Finance

Tariffs are now funding the government

Customs receipts fund deficit

Business

Companies brace for a tariff refund

Refund contingency accounting

Special Report

New Year's Eve: How the dollar lost its shine

Debasement trade vs reserve status

Markets & Finance

2025 in five charts: gold up, dollar down

Dollar debasement narrative tested

Markets & Finance

Paramount goes hostile

Debt-funded cash vs stock offer

World

Japan's last cheap-money trade

BoJ hike narrows differential

Markets & Finance

Japan's bond yields hit 17-year highs

BoJ hike priced into curve

Special Report

Cyber Monday: Record spending, more buy now, pay later

Deferred-payment credit risk

Special Report

Black Friday: Buy now, get a refund later?

Contingent refunds on duties

Markets & Finance

AI's biggest spenders feel the credit squeeze

Supply indigestion in IG tech

Markets & Finance

What if the tariffs have to be refunded?

Refund exposure if IEEPA falls

Tech

Meta borrows $30bn for AI

Debt funds AI capex

Economy

The Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet

QT end timing

Tech

The AI money loop

Vendor equity funds customer capex

Markets & Finance

Money markets flash a warning

Repo pressure signals scarcity

Special Report

Diwali: The rupee hits a record low

50% tariff hits export flows

Markets & Finance

Are there more cockroaches in bank balance sheets?

Idiosyncratic losses as clustering

World

Japan's new leader weakens the yen

Fiscal dovishness weakens yen

Markets & Finance

Gold breaks $3,700

Reserve demand overrides real yields

Business

Oracle's $455bn order book

RPO requires debt-funded capex