Established ✥ MMXXII
The Lombard Review

Special Reports

Special editions from The Lombard Review: longer analysis tied to events, seasons and market turning points.

Special Report

Labor Day: Hiring is strong enough to worry the Fed

Strong labour data forces tightening

Special Report

Anniversary: Four years, 500 pieces

Four-year cost-of-capital shift

Special Report

Back to school: Borrowing costs top 5%

Long-end rout hits borrowing

Special Report

Independence Day: Energy independence, tested

Shale response vs inventory draw

Special Report

Memorial Day: Summer driving at $100 oil

Fuel costs squeeze real income

Special Report

Tax Day: Refunds from the IRS — and from Customs

IRS and CBP refunds hit cash

Special Report

Lunar New Year: China keeps the yuan steady

Fixing management in legal limbo

Special Report

Valentine's Day: Betting on the Supreme Court

Binary legal event pricing

Special Report

Super Bowl: Shoppers wait for the tariff verdict

Tariff pass-through vs spending

Special Report

New Year: 2026 hinges on one court case

Refund contingency drives guidance

Special Report

New Year's Eve: How the dollar lost its shine

Debasement trade vs reserve status

Special Report

Boxing Day: Holiday shopping with missing data

Missing CPI month biases data

Special Report

Christmas: The boom that arrived late

Delayed data overstates momentum

Special Report

Cyber Monday: Record spending, more buy now, pay later

Deferred-payment credit risk

Special Report

Black Friday: Buy now, get a refund later?

Contingent refunds on duties

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Beef, tariffs and the holiday table

Food-tariff rollback pass-through

Special Report

Singles' Day: A truce, but will China shop?

De-escalation vs weak demand

Special Report

Halloween: The scariest balance sheets in AI

Circular vendor financing

Special Report

Diwali: The rupee hits a record low

50% tariff hits export flows

Special Report

Anniversary: Three years, what we got right

Three-year forecast audit

Special Report

Labor Day: Hiring has stalled

Hiring freeze without layoffs

Special Report

Back to school: Tariffs hit the shopping list

Apparel/electronics cost pass-through

Special Report

Prime Day: Four days of discounts, and tariffs

Import-price inflation in retail

Special Report

Independence Day: The real cost of the "big beautiful bill"

Growth feedback assumptions

Special Report

Memorial Day: Downgraded, and still spending

Rating loss meets fiscal bill

Special Report

Tax Day: The biggest tax rise in decades isn't in the tax code

Tariffs as consumption tax

Special Report

Valentine's Day: America and Europe's trade breakup

Reciprocity threatens euro

Special Report

Super Bowl: $8m ads, gloomy shoppers

Spend vs survey divergence

Special Report

Lunar New Year: DeepSeek and China's tech comeback

Efficiency shock re-rates China tech

Special Report

New Year: 2025 comes down to one word — tariffs

Guidance hinges on trade policy

Special Report

New Year's Eve: The dollar's big year

Growth and rate gap drive USD

Special Report

Boxing Day: Why money markets get jumpy at year-end

Turn-of-year funding spikes

Special Report

Christmas: A lump of coal from the Fed

Tariff risk halves easing

Special Report

Cyber Monday: The hidden debt of buy now, pay later

Unreported consumer leverage

Special Report

Black Friday: Shoppers race to beat the tariffs

Import pull-forward, strong dollar

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year

Supply shocks in food CPI

Special Report

Singles' Day: China fixes its local debt, not its shoppers

Local-debt relief vs demand stimulus

Special Report

Diwali: India's record IPO rush

Primary supply absorbs liquidity

Special Report

Halloween: The Fed cut, and yields went up

Yields rise after cuts

Special Report

Anniversary: Two years of calls, checked

Forecast error decomposition

Special Report

Labor Day: Is the job market cracking?

Labour-supply vs demand weakness

Special Report

Prime Day: The ad business behind the discounts

Ad revenue subsidises discounts

Special Report

Independence Day: Is the dollar losing its crown?

Reserve diversification pace

Special Report

Memorial Day: Petrol prices and the summer inflation bump

Seasonal energy distortion

Special Report

Tax Day: What April tells us about the deficit

Receipts vs structural deficit

Special Report

Valentine's Day: The chocolate crisis

Input shock vs pricing power

Special Report

Super Bowl: Does football predict the bond market?

Folklore indicators vs yields

Special Report

Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices

Price deflation depresses earnings

Special Report

New Year: Markets want six rate cuts. They'll be disappointed

Market path vs committee

Special Report

New Year's Eve: A dead year for deals

Financing costs freeze deals