The Lombard Review

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Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Markets & Finance

The refunds that will add to America's borrowing

Refunds raise bill issuance

Economy

When will importers get their money?

Liquidation status drives timing

Special Report

Tax Day: Refunds from the IRS — and from Customs

IRS and CBP refunds hit cash

Economy

The ceasefire that didn't open the strait

Blockade replaces open conflict

Business

Refiners are winning the war

Product tightness lifts margins

Markets & Finance

A ceasefire, and oil falls

Oil premium half-life

Politics

Steel tariffs just got a lot bigger

Metal-content basis replaced

World

Asia pays the most for Hormuz

Asia bears most crude exposure

Business

Saudi Arabia's pipeline around the war

Red Sea bypass capacity

Markets & Finance

What bond markets say about the oil shock

Breakevens up, reals down

Economy

The Fed faces a war shock

Supply-shock reaction function

Economy

Emergency oil can't fill the gap

Stock release vs flow loss

Business

Which airlines are protected from $100 oil

Airline fuel-hedge coverage

Markets & Finance

Tariffs go up, refunds go out

Refund order vs rate increase

Economy

How much will oil push up prices?

Second-round effects by regime

World

The oil shock the world feared

Chokepoint removes ~20% of seaborne oil

Markets & Finance

Who gets the $166bn tariff refund?

Importer balance sheets gain claim

Politics

Trump's new tariff has a 150-day clock

Section 122 as temporary bridge

Politics

The Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs

Legal regime break in tariff series

Special Report

Lunar New Year: China keeps the yuan steady

Fixing management in legal limbo

Politics

Tariffs raise $30bn a month. Not for long?

Refund risk on ~$30bn monthly receipts

Special Report

Valentine's Day: Betting on the Supreme Court

Binary legal event pricing

Tech

AI is coming for software companies

Agentic tools threaten seat pricing

Markets & Finance

The dollar's Warsh moment

Chair-regime premium in FX

Special Report

Super Bowl: Shoppers wait for the tariff verdict

Tariff pass-through vs spending

Economy

The job numbers, rewritten again

Benchmark revision reshapes trend

Economy

Who is Kevin Warsh?

Smaller balance sheet traded for cuts

Tech

Big Tech's AI spending passes $600bn

Capex outruns operating cash

World

The yen nears Japan's line in the sand

Pace-based intervention trigger

Politics

How long do Trump's tariff threats last?

Event study of reversals

Politics

Trump's tariff threat over Greenland

Security aims via trade threats

Markets & Finance

Banks cash in on chaos

Markets revenue offsets NII

Markets & Finance

Japan's 30-year bond hits a record

Life-insurer demand gap

Economy

The job market's confusing signals

Missing months break SA filters

Markets & Finance

Tariffs are now funding the government

Customs receipts fund deficit

Business

Companies brace for a tariff refund

Refund contingency accounting

Special Report

New Year: 2026 hinges on one court case

Refund contingency drives guidance

Special Report

New Year's Eve: How the dollar lost its shine

Debasement trade vs reserve status

Markets & Finance

2025 in five charts: gold up, dollar down

Dollar debasement narrative tested

Special Report

Boxing Day: Holiday shopping with missing data

Missing CPI month biases data

Economy

The inflation data with a missing month

Carry-forward prices bias CPI

Special Report

Christmas: The boom that arrived late

Delayed data overstates momentum

Economy

A 4.3% boom, reported late

Delayed GDP after shutdown

Markets & Finance

Paramount goes hostile

Debt-funded cash vs stock offer

World

Japan's last cheap-money trade

BoJ hike narrows differential

Economy

One cut, three dissents

Voting dispersion as signal

Economy

QE by another name?

Reserve management purchases

Business

Netflix bets big on Warner Bros

Stock vs cash offers

Markets & Finance

Japan's bond yields hit 17-year highs

BoJ hike priced into curve

Special Report

Cyber Monday: Record spending, more buy now, pay later

Deferred-payment credit risk