Established ✥ MMXXII
The Lombard Review

Economy

The Federal Reserve, inflation, jobs and growth: analysis of the economic cycle and the data behind it.

Economy

The Fed hikes, and its chair skips the dot plot

Missing chair projection as signal

Economy

The rate hike the Fed can't avoid

Inflation persistence forces tightening

Special Report

Labor Day: Hiring is strong enough to worry the Fed

Strong labour data forces tightening

Economy

Blowout jobs, tighter Fed

Rule-implied rate above policy

Economy

Is the oil shock turning into wage inflation?

Second-round effects test

Markets & Finance

The market bets on a Warsh hike

Hike odds from forward curve

Economy

Three Fed officials want a hike

Minority votes signal next move

Politics

One tariff ends, another begins

Legal basis change, similar rate

Economy

Is it oil or tariffs pushing prices up?

Decomposing two supply shocks

Economy

The Fed's hawks start to multiply

Dissent build-up before hike

Economy

What does Warsh want?

Chair change as structural break

Economy

The world is running down its oil reserves

Inventory drawdown clock

Economy

Diesel prices are the warning sign

Diesel tightness leads core

Economy

Powell's final meeting

Chair transition risk

Economy

When will importers get their money?

Liquidation status drives timing

Economy

The ceasefire that didn't open the strait

Blockade replaces open conflict

World

Asia pays the most for Hormuz

Asia bears most crude exposure

Economy

The Fed faces a war shock

Supply-shock reaction function

Economy

Emergency oil can't fill the gap

Stock release vs flow loss

Economy

How much will oil push up prices?

Second-round effects by regime

Politics

The Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs

Legal regime break in tariff series

Economy

The job numbers, rewritten again

Benchmark revision reshapes trend

Economy

Who is Kevin Warsh?

Smaller balance sheet traded for cuts

Economy

The job market's confusing signals

Missing months break SA filters

Special Report

Boxing Day: Holiday shopping with missing data

Missing CPI month biases data

Economy

The inflation data with a missing month

Carry-forward prices bias CPI

Special Report

Christmas: The boom that arrived late

Delayed data overstates momentum

Economy

A 4.3% boom, reported late

Delayed GDP after shutdown

Economy

One cut, three dissents

Voting dispersion as signal

Economy

QE by another name?

Reserve management purchases

Economy

One speech that flipped the Fed odds

December odds swing on one speech

Politics

The longest shutdown's lasting cost

Unrecovered federal activity

Economy

The Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet

QT end timing

Economy

One inflation report in a data blackout

Single CPI release during shutdown

Economy

Flying blind: no jobs report

Private data substitutes for BLS

Economy

A shutdown would leave the Fed flying blind

Shutdown halts statistics

Economy

The Fed cuts, cautiously

Insurance easing; 50bp dissent

Economy

Trump's man joins the Fed

Appointments shift reaction function

Economy

911,000 jobs that never existed

Benchmark resets cut path

Special Report

Anniversary: Three years, what we got right

Three-year forecast audit

Economy

Just 22,000 jobs

Immigration curbs lower job trend

Special Report

Labor Day: Hiring has stalled

Hiring freeze without layoffs

Politics

Trump moves to fire a Fed governor

Governance risk lifts long end

Economy

Powell opens the door to cuts

Labour downside outweighs inflation

Economy

Switzerland's 39% shock

Concentrated export exposure

Economy

How 258,000 jobs disappeared

Late-response revision bias

Economy

Trump fires the jobs data chief

Statistical agency independence

Special Report

Independence Day: The real cost of the "big beautiful bill"

Growth feedback assumptions

Economy

A divided Fed

Bimodal SEP distribution

World

Oil jumps as Israel strikes Iran

Oil shock into inflation swaps