The Lombard Review

Latest Headlines

Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Tech

Big Tech keeps spending after DeepSeek

Jevons logic in capex guides

Special Report

Lunar New Year: DeepSeek and China's tech comeback

Efficiency shock re-rates China tech

Markets & Finance

DeepSeek's shock sends investors running to bonds

Equity shock lowers term premium

Economy

How do you measure chaos?

Text-based policy-uncertainty indices

Politics

Trump's first day: no tariffs, yet

Review-first trade memo

Business

Wall Street banks bet on deregulation

Fee pool recovery vs capital relief

Markets & Finance

Britain's borrowing costs hit a 27-year high

Fiscal rule headroom erodes with yields

Economy

Great jobs data, bad news for bonds

Strong data lifts term premium

Economy

Why America borrows like it's in a crisis

Procyclical fiscal stance

Business

Biden blocks the US Steel deal

Blocked deal triggers termination payment

Special Report

New Year: 2025 comes down to one word — tariffs

Guidance hinges on trade policy

Special Report

New Year's Eve: The dollar's big year

Growth and rate gap drive USD

Politics

The debt ceiling is back

Suspension lapse restarts X-date clock

Economy

How much inflation could tariffs add?

60/25/10 inflation scenarios

Special Report

Boxing Day: Why money markets get jumpy at year-end

Turn-of-year funding spikes

Special Report

Christmas: A lump of coal from the Fed

Tariff risk halves easing

Economy

The Fed cuts, then takes back half of next year's cuts

Tariff inflation priced into dots

Business

Honda and Nissan: merging to survive

Consolidation to fund EV transition

Economy

The Fed is about to cut, and sound tough doing it

Cut with fewer 2025 dots

Economy

The inflation that won't budge

Monthly core persistence

World

China finally promises to loosen up

Policy stance language upgrade

Business

US Steel's deal is in limbo

Political veto as deal variable

Markets & Finance

France now borrows at higher rates than Greece

Political risk inverts core-periphery

Special Report

Cyber Monday: The hidden debt of buy now, pay later

Unreported consumer leverage

Special Report

Black Friday: Shoppers race to beat the tariffs

Import pull-forward, strong dollar

Economy

The last mile of inflation is the hardest

Services persistence caps descent

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year

Supply shocks in food CPI

World

Trump threatens Mexico and Canada

Tariff threat vs integrated supply chains

Business

Companies are stockpiling before the tariffs hit

Inventory pull-forward ties up cash

Markets & Finance

Can a stronger dollar cancel out tariffs?

Dollar appreciation absorbs tariffs

Economy

How low will the Fed go?

Pace of cuts vs uncertain r*

Politics

A 60% tariff is a tax on Americans

Incidence of China tariffs

Special Report

Singles' Day: China fixes its local debt, not its shoppers

Local-debt relief vs demand stimulus

Markets & Finance

The winners from a Republican sweep

Capital relief expectations lift regionals

Markets & Finance

Election night for the bond market

Fiscal expansion priced into long end

Special Report

Diwali: India's record IPO rush

Primary supply absorbs liquidity

Economy

Just 12,000 jobs: what storms and strikes hide

Strike and storm adjustments

Special Report

Halloween: The Fed cut, and yields went up

Yields rise after cuts

Politics

Trump vs Harris: the bill for each

Ten-year fiscal scenarios

Business

Tesla's profits: look closer

Non-core credits flatter auto margins

Politics

Election jitters push up long-term rates

Fiscal uncertainty lifts term premium

Politics

Who really paid for Trump's first tariffs

Near-complete tariff pass-through estimates

World

How Chinese goods reach America through Mexico

Trade diversion masks China content

Business

Banks' interest income bottoms out

Rate cuts compress bank margins

Markets & Finance

The Fed cut rates. Why are mortgage rates rising?

Term premium reprices post-easing

Economy

254,000 jobs, despite the hurricanes

Weather distortion in payroll data

Economy

The port strike that could hit Christmas

East/Gulf Coast closure risk to goods

Business

Microsoft reopens Three Mile Island

Long-dated PPAs as capex substitutes

World

China finally fires its stimulus bazooka

Monetary easing vs deflation expectations

Economy

The Fed goes big

Front-loading vs gradualism