The Lombard Review

Economy

The Federal Reserve, inflation, jobs and growth: analysis of the economic cycle and the data behind it.

Economy

Tariffs still aren't showing up in prices

Pass-through timing

Economy

The "big beautiful bill" and its big bill

Tax extension without offsets

Politics

Where are the tariff price rises?

Inventory buffers delay pass-through

World

America and China call a truce

90-day de-escalation

Economy

GDP shrank. The economy didn't

Domestic demand vs headline

Economy

The import rush that will shrink GDP

Front-running distorts net exports

Markets & Finance

The Fed quietly stops shrinking its bond pile

Near-halt of Treasury runoff

Economy

The Fed sees slower growth and higher prices

Growth down, inflation up

Economy

The recession forecast caused by gold bars

Non-monetary gold distorts net exports

Markets & Finance

Markets swap inflation fear for growth fear

Real-yield decline on activity data

Economy

January inflation strikes again

Start-of-year price resets

Special Report

Super Bowl: $8m ads, gloomy shoppers

Spend vs survey divergence

Economy

600,000 jobs erased from the record

Annual benchmark rewrites 2024

Economy

How do you measure chaos?

Text-based policy-uncertainty indices

Economy

Great jobs data, bad news for bonds

Strong data lifts term premium

Economy

Why America borrows like it's in a crisis

Procyclical fiscal stance

Special Report

New Year's Eve: The dollar's big year

Growth and rate gap drive USD

Economy

How much inflation could tariffs add?

60/25/10 inflation scenarios

Special Report

Christmas: A lump of coal from the Fed

Tariff risk halves easing

Economy

The Fed cuts, then takes back half of next year's cuts

Tariff inflation priced into dots

Economy

The Fed is about to cut, and sound tough doing it

Cut with fewer 2025 dots

Economy

The inflation that won't budge

Monthly core persistence

World

China finally promises to loosen up

Policy stance language upgrade

Economy

The last mile of inflation is the hardest

Services persistence caps descent

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Why eggs cost more this year

Supply shocks in food CPI

Economy

How low will the Fed go?

Pace of cuts vs uncertain r*

Economy

Just 12,000 jobs: what storms and strikes hide

Strike and storm adjustments

Special Report

Halloween: The Fed cut, and yields went up

Yields rise after cuts

Markets & Finance

The Fed cut rates. Why are mortgage rates rising?

Term premium reprices post-easing

Economy

254,000 jobs, despite the hurricanes

Weather distortion in payroll data

Economy

The port strike that could hit Christmas

East/Gulf Coast closure risk to goods

Economy

The Fed goes big

Front-loading vs gradualism

Economy

Cutting from strength, or from fear?

Pre-emptive easing logic

Special Report

Anniversary: Two years of calls, checked

Forecast error decomposition

Economy

The jobs numbers keep getting revised down

Persistent downward revisions

Economy

Nobody's being fired. Nobody's being hired

Cooling without layoffs

Special Report

Labor Day: Is the job market cracking?

Labour-supply vs demand weakness

Economy

America had 818,000 fewer jobs than we thought

Business-formation model overstates jobs

Economy

Is it finally time to cut?

Sub-3% inflation opens easing

Economy

Wall Street's fear gauge hits 65. What happened?

Illiquid options skew spike

Economy

The recession alarm goes off

Immigration inflates unemployment rise

Economy

Small caps soar as crowded bets unwind

Momentum reversal on rate-cut beta

Economy

Prices fall for the first time since 2020

Disinflation broadening test

Economy

The Fed now sees just one cut

One 2024 cut in median

World

What happens to the euro when the ECB cuts first

Rate differential vs growth differential

Economy

How far can Europe cut before the Fed does?

ECB cut ahead of Fed via FX pass-through

Special Report

Memorial Day: Petrol prices and the summer inflation bump

Seasonal energy distortion

Economy

One soft inflation report: signal or noise?

Single-month information content

Economy

Are workers finally getting more productive?

Output per hour vs labour hoarding

Economy

The Fed slows its balance-sheet shrinking

Slower runoff delays reserve scarcity