The Lombard Review
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What happens to the euro when the ECB cuts first

Rate differential vs growth differential

The Frankfurt skyline across the River Main
The Frankfurt skyline across the River MainPhoto: Jörg Braukmann / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
1 min read Data: €STR ~95% for 6 Jun cut

With euro short-term rate (€STR) futures pricing a near-certainty of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the European Central Bank’s 6 June meeting, foreign exchange desks are positioning for transatlantic divergence. The ECB is moving to stimulate an anaemic continental economy, while the Federal Reserve remains constrained by stubborn US price pressures.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York at 33 Liberty Street
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York at 33 Liberty StreetPhoto: Beyond My Ken / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

The Divergence Drag

The resulting widening of policy rate differentials will naturally exert downward pressure on the euro against the dollar. However, foreign exchange movements are dictated by growth differentials as much as interest rates. If lower European borrowing costs spark an industrial recovery while US growth decelerates under sticky inflation, the euro could display unexpected resilience against the greenback.

The U.S. Treasury Building, Washington
The U.S. Treasury Building, WashingtonPhoto: MeanieHyaena / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

The ECB cutting rates ahead of the Fed marks a profound divergence in global monetary policy, testing whether the euro can withstand widening transatlantic interest rate spreads.