America had 818,000 fewer jobs than we thought
Business-formation model overstates jobs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered an astonishing statistical bombshell on 21 August, releasing preliminary benchmark revisions showing that US non-farm payrolls were overstated by an eye-watering 818,000 jobs in the twelve months through March 2024. It represents the largest downward employment revision in fifteen years.
The Phantom Job Phenomenon
The massive statistical wipeout confirmed what skeptical economists long suspected: the BLS birth-death model, which imputes job growth from assumed new business formations, systematically exaggerated labor strength in an era of high interest rates and business bankruptcies. The United States was generating roughly 175,000 jobs per month rather than the reported 242,000. Monetary policy was calibrated against a phantom employment boom.
Erasing 818,000 phantom jobs revealed that the American labor market was significantly weaker than official statistics suggested, exposing the Federal Reserve to the charge of policy delay.