The Lombard Review

Economy

The Federal Reserve, inflation, jobs and growth: analysis of the economic cycle and the data behind it.

Economy

Slow growth, sticky prices: a whiff of stagflation

Weak growth, firm core

Markets & Finance

The market gives up on rate cuts

Curve removes 2024 easing

Economy

Three hot months: what the data now says

Posterior on disinflation path shifts

Economy

Powell admits cuts will take longer

Guidance shift after three hot prints

Economy

Immigration changes the jobs maths

Immigration raises trend job growth

Economy

Inflation's stall isn't a seasonal fluke

Persistence, not seasonality

Economy

The Fed nudges its long-run rate higher

Gradual r* revision in SEP

World

Japan ends negative rates

First BoJ hike in 17 years

Markets & Finance

The Fed's banking lifeline expires

Loss of par collateral facility

Economy

Why job numbers keep getting revised down

Response-rate bias in initial estimates

Economy

The new normal for interest rates is higher

Fiscal and demographic drivers lift r*

Economy

Japan and Britain slip into recession

Low-growth equilibrium in advanced economies

Markets & Finance

A hot inflation report hits short-term bonds

Front-end reprices cut timing

Special Report

Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices

Price deflation depresses earnings

Economy

Did inflation's progress survive the revisions?

Seasonal factor updates redistribute inflation

Economy

353,000 jobs and no March cut

Labour strength delays first cut

Economy

3.3% growth: too good to be true?

Output vs hours decomposition

World

Japan wants pay rises before rate rises

Shunto outcome as hike precondition

Markets & Finance

Banks borrow from the Fed to earn more from the Fed

Facility rate below IORB

Economy

Why January inflation always looks bad

Start-of-year pricing biases SA data

Economy

Shipping costs double as ships avoid the Red Sea

Cape route adds ~10 days, lifts rates

Economy

The Fed's money drain is about to get real

RRP buffer exhaustion shifts drain to reserves

Special Report

New Year: Markets want six rate cuts. They'll be disappointed

Market path vs committee

Economy

2023: The recession that never came

Consensus recession call failed

Economy

Red Sea attacks threaten cheaper goods

Rerouting raises freight and lead times

Economy

The Fed pivots

Dot shift validates market

Economy

Can the Fed really cut six times?

Market path vs committee reaction function

Economy

Inflation is already at target, if you squint

Annualisation window changes inference

Economy

A Fed hawk hints at cuts

Real-rate drift argues for cuts

Special Report

Cyber Monday: Record spending on borrowed money

BNPL shifts consumption forward

Economy

Inflation hits 3.2%. The last mile begins

Core disinflation stalls near 4%

Special Report

Diwali: India's festive boom runs on credit

Credit elasticity of festive spend

Special Report

Singles' Day: China's shoppers have lost their nerve

Deflation depresses spending

Economy

The recession rule that's flashing amber

Unemployment rise triggers recession rule

Economy

Strong jobs, falling bonds

Strong data raises real yields

Economy

The Fed takes back half its rate cuts

Removed cuts reprice curve

Economy

Is "higher for longer" already priced in?

Energy re-accelerates headline

Economy

Unemployment rose, for a good reason

Labour supply, not layoffs, drives rate

Economy

Saudi Arabia keeps oil above $90

Voluntary supply cuts sustain headline

Special Report

Labor Day: The job market is cooling the right way

Vacancies fall without unemployment spike

Markets & Finance

Bonds finally pay more than inflation

Positive real yields compress equity premium

Economy

Economists can't agree on where rates should settle

Filter-based vs forward-rate r*

Economy

What is the "right" interest rate anyway?

Neutral-rate drift sets terminal

Economy

America is borrowing like it's in a recession. It isn't

Full-employment deficits pressure term premium

Economy

Is the economy really this strong?

GDP vs GDI gap

Economy

One more hike, then what?

Loss function favours holding over hiking

Economy

Inflation hits 3%. The easy part is over

Favourable base effects exhausted

Economy

Inflation is falling without a recession. Can it last?

Supply healing without labour slack

Special Report

Prime Day: What Amazon's discounts say about inflation

Discounting confirms goods deflation

Economy

The stubborn inflation the Fed can't shake

Autoregressive decay of services inflation