The Lombard Review
Politics

Trump vs Harris: the bill for each

Ten-year fiscal scenarios

The U.S. Capitol at night
The U.S. Capitol at nightPhoto: Diliff / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain
1 min read Data: CRFB +$7.5trn vs +$3.5trn

An exhaustive fiscal analysis published by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) delivered a sobering quantification of the 2024 presidential platforms. Evaluating the candidates' explicit economic proposals over a ten-year horizon, the CRFB concluded that Donald Trump’s agenda would add an estimated $7.5 trillion to the national debt, while Kamala Harris’s proposals would increase borrowing by $3.5 trillion.

The U.S. Treasury Building, Washington
The U.S. Treasury Building, WashingtonPhoto: MeanieHyaena / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

The Arithmetic of Fiscal Recklessness

Trump’s platform pairs permanent corporate tax cuts and tariff revenues with massive spending promises, while Harris’s agenda combines social subsidies and clean energy outlays with higher corporate taxes that will struggle to pass Congress. Neither candidate offers a mathematically viable plan to halt the expansion of the $35 trillion federal debt pile. Sovereign debt markets face an unending duration flood.

The Federal Reserve Board's Eccles Building on Constitution Avenue
The Federal Reserve Board's Eccles Building on Constitution AvenuePhoto: AgnosticPreachersKid / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

The non-partisan fiscal audit of both presidential agendas confirms the sovereign bond market’s worst nightmare: America is committed to compounding multi-trillion-dollar deficits regardless of who wins.