The Lombard Review

Latest Headlines

Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Economy

Cutting from strength, or from fear?

Pre-emptive easing logic

Business

Boeing's strike and its shrinking cash pile

Strike burns cash near junk threshold

Markets & Finance

Half a point or a quarter?

Media leaks as information shocks

Special Report

Anniversary: Two years of calls, checked

Forecast error decomposition

Economy

The jobs numbers keep getting revised down

Persistent downward revisions

Economy

Nobody's being fired. Nobody's being hired

Cooling without layoffs

Special Report

Labor Day: Is the job market cracking?

Labour-supply vs demand weakness

Tech

Nvidia beats and still falls

Whisper numbers exceed guidance

Markets & Finance

The yield curve un-inverts. Is that good news?

Bull steepening precedes downturns

Economy

America had 818,000 fewer jobs than we thought

Business-formation model overstates jobs

Economy

Is it finally time to cut?

Sub-3% inflation opens easing

Business

Buffett is sitting on $277bn of cash

Cash as valuation signal

Markets & Finance

The carry trade that blew up

Funding-currency squeeze unwinds leverage

Economy

Wall Street's fear gauge hits 65. What happened?

Illiquid options skew spike

Economy

The recession alarm goes off

Immigration inflates unemployment rise

Business

Intel stops paying its dividend

Foundry capex exhausts free cash flow

World

Japan hikes into the world's most crowded trade

Positioning asymmetry before hike

Economy

Small caps soar as crowded bets unwind

Momentum reversal on rate-cut beta

Politics

Biden steps aside: what it means for the deficit

Deficit scenarios after withdrawal

Business

CrowdStrike's outage: who pays?

Contract caps shift operational loss

World

Japan steps in to save the yen

Suspected intervention after data

Special Report

Prime Day: The ad business behind the discounts

Ad revenue subsidises discounts

Economy

Prices fall for the first time since 2020

Disinflation broadening test

Politics

Why tariffs won't fix the trade deficit

Import tariffs appreciate currency, hit exports

Business

Who actually pays a 10% tariff?

Gross-margin exposure across importers

Special Report

Independence Day: Is the dollar losing its crown?

Reserve diversification pace

Markets & Finance

The "Trump trade" hits bonds

Tariff and deficit risk lift long end

Markets & Finance

How a presidential debate moves the bond market

Event study of debate repricing

World

China's cheap EVs meet Europe's tariffs

Subsidised capacity meets tariff walls

Business

Nvidia becomes the world's most valuable company

Single-stock weight in index funds

Markets & Finance

Is France the eurozone's next crisis?

TPI eligibility and spread ceiling

Economy

The Fed now sees just one cut

One 2024 cut in median

Markets & Finance

Macron's gamble spooks French bond markets

Fiscal policy risk reprices spreads

Markets & Finance

Nvidia hits $3trn, and index funds are along for the ride

Index flows amplify single names

World

What happens to the euro when the ECB cuts first

Rate differential vs growth differential

Economy

How far can Europe cut before the Fed does?

ECB cut ahead of Fed via FX pass-through

U.S.

America's deficit won't shrink

Structural deficit under divided government

Special Report

Memorial Day: Petrol prices and the summer inflation bump

Seasonal energy distortion

Tech

Nvidia's boom: peak or plateau?

Hyperscaler capex as customer concentration

Markets & Finance

The Treasury starts buying back its own debt

Off-the-run buybacks improve depth

Economy

One soft inflation report: signal or noise?

Single-month information content

Economy

Are workers finally getting more productive?

Output per hour vs labour hoarding

Business

Apple's record $110bn buyback

Record repurchase at high cost of capital

Economy

The Fed slows its balance-sheet shrinking

Slower runoff delays reserve scarcity

World

How to spot Japan's secret yen buying

Current-account forecasts reveal FX sales

Economy

Slow growth, sticky prices: a whiff of stagflation

Weak growth, firm core

Business

Meta spends more, investors flee

Capex raise without revenue guide

Markets & Finance

The market gives up on rate cuts

Curve removes 2024 easing

Economy

Three hot months: what the data now says

Posterior on disinflation path shifts

Economy

Powell admits cuts will take longer

Guidance shift after three hot prints