The Lombard Review

Markets & Finance

Bonds, stocks, currencies, credit and commodities: the latest analysis of financial markets.

Markets & Finance

The Treasury starts buying back its own debt

Off-the-run buybacks improve depth

Economy

The Fed slows its balance-sheet shrinking

Slower runoff delays reserve scarcity

World

How to spot Japan's secret yen buying

Current-account forecasts reveal FX sales

Business

Meta spends more, investors flee

Capex raise without revenue guide

Markets & Finance

The market gives up on rate cuts

Curve removes 2024 easing

Business

Bank profits hold up in a higher-for-longer world

Asset repricing offsets deposit costs

World

How far will Japan let the yen fall?

Threshold ambiguity as deterrent

World

Japan raised rates. The yen fell anyway

Carry dominates signalling

Markets & Finance

The Fed's banking lifeline expires

Loss of par collateral facility

Business

Capital One's real prize in Discover: the network

Closed-loop network captures interchange

Markets & Finance

Office loans are going bad

Extension risk in conduit deals

Tech

Nvidia adds $277bn in a day

Single-stock shock as factor event

Markets & Finance

A hot inflation report hits short-term bonds

Front-end reprices cut timing

Special Report

Super Bowl: Does football predict the bond market?

Folklore indicators vs yields

Special Report

Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices

Price deflation depresses earnings

Markets & Finance

The Treasury promises no more surprises

Forward guidance on coupon sizes

Markets & Finance

Banks pay the bill for last year's failures

Deposit-insurance recapitalisation charge

Markets & Finance

Banks borrow from the Fed to earn more from the Fed

Facility rate below IORB

Markets & Finance

Seven stocks, almost a third of the market

Index weight concentration as systemic risk

Special Report

New Year: Markets want six rate cuts. They'll be disappointed

Market path vs committee

Special Report

Boxing Day: The year-end squeeze in money markets

Bank balance-sheet shrink at year-end

Special Report

Christmas: Is the Santa rally real?

Seasonal anomaly significance

World

Japan is the last to keep rates below zero

BoJ delay sustains yen carry

Economy

Can the Fed really cut six times?

Market path vs committee reaction function

Business

Companies rush to borrow before rates fall

Issuers term out as spreads tighten

Markets & Finance

The great bond rally

Positioning squeeze drives duration rally

Special Report

Black Friday: Retailers finally have the right amount of stock

Lean stock restores margin

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Bond investors finally have something to be thankful for

Duration rally eases conditions

U.S.

Moody's warns on America's debt

Rating drift as slow-moving term premium

Markets & Finance

Are financial conditions tight or loose? Depends who you ask

FCI weighting drives easing signal

Special Report

Diwali: India's festive boom runs on credit

Credit elasticity of festive spend

Markets & Finance

The Treasury borrows less than feared, and bonds soar

Supply surprise drives duration rally

Markets & Finance

The Treasury blinks

Issuance mix shifts to bills

Tech

Alphabet spends more, grows less, and pays for it

Deceleration plus capex compresses multiple

Markets & Finance

The bond vigilantes are back

Weak bid-to-cover signals demand gap

Markets & Finance

The 10-year hits 5%. Why now?

Three-way yield decomposition

World

China's hidden local debt problem

Hidden local debt rolled via special bonds

Business

Banks' profit peak is here

AOCI drag vs rising funding costs

Markets & Finance

After the Hamas attack, the rush to safety faded fast

Geopolitics vs supply overhang

Economy

Strong jobs, falling bonds

Strong data raises real yields

Markets & Finance

Long bonds are selling off for a new reason

Supply, not policy, lifts long end

World

How weak will Japan let the yen go?

Pace, not level, triggers intervention

Special Report

Anniversary: Our first year, graded

Calls vs realised curve

Special Report

Labor Day: The job market is cooling the right way

Vacancies fall without unemployment spike

Markets & Finance

Bonds finally pay more than inflation

Positive real yields compress equity premium

Markets & Finance

China's prices are falling. Its currency could be next

Strong-side CNY fixings resist depreciation

Markets & Finance

Why long bonds pay more — two very different answers

Model specification drives decomposition

Markets & Finance

The Treasury needs more money, and companies will feel it

Treasury duration supply raises IG cost

Markets & Finance

America loses its AAA again. Does it matter?

Governance premium, not default risk

Markets & Finance

Why banks are selling their best loans

Capital relief via asset sales