The Lombard Review

Markets & Finance

Bonds, stocks, currencies, credit and commodities: the latest analysis of financial markets.

Markets & Finance

Is Japan about to loosen its grip on bonds?

Band flexibility raises JGB term premium

Markets & Finance

Banks passed the stress test. Now comes the real test

Endgame RWA inflation vs buyback capacity

World

Why British homeowners feel rate rises faster than anyone

Short fixed terms transmit rates fast

World

Britain's mortgage crunch returns

UK core inflation persistence reprices front end

Markets & Finance

A bull market built on seven stocks

Concentration risk in cap-weighted index

Markets & Finance

The Treasury refills its account, and markets pay

TGA rebuild sourced from RRP vs reserves

Special Report

Memorial Day: The debt deal is done. Now comes the bill

Ceiling resolution reprices bills

Markets & Finance

Get ready for a flood of Treasury bills

TGA rebuild drains reserves and RRP

U.S.

When does America run out of money?

TGA depletion and payment prioritisation

Markets & Finance

Why regional banks lost a third of their value

Factor exposure to deposit and CRE risk

Markets & Finance

Markets start pricing an American default

Technical default priced in 1Y contracts

World

China is spending again. Its property market isn't

Consumption rebound absent credit impulse

Markets & Finance

The Treasury bills nobody wants to hold

Bills near X-date trade cheap

Economy

Watching deposits leave in real time

Weekly deposit data as lending signal

Markets & Finance

First Republic has been rescued. It hasn't been saved

Liquidity support without solvency fix

Markets & Finance

Savers flee banks for money funds

MMF yields outpace deposit rates

Markets & Finance

Why Credit Suisse bondholders lost everything before shareholders

Write-down ahead of equity breaks capital stack

Economy

Are bank failures doing the Fed's job for it?

Credit contraction substitutes for tightening

Markets & Finance

The Fed's quiet bailout of banks' bad bond bets

Par collateral valuation removes fire-sale loss

Markets & Finance

After SVB, the biggest bond rally since 1987

Flight to quality meets policy repricing

Markets & Finance

How a bank run happens at the speed of an app

Uninsured, concentrated deposits run digitally

Markets & Finance

America's banks are sitting on $620bn of hidden losses

Unrealised losses hidden by accounting

Markets & Finance

Could rates really hit 6%?

Higher-for-longer compresses cut pricing

Markets & Finance

Private credit's borrowers are feeling the squeeze

Coverage falls as SOFR resets

Markets & Finance

Short-term bonds are having a terrible month

Front end reprices terminal, long end anchored

Special Report

Valentine's Day: Markets still love rate cuts. The Fed doesn't love them back

Markets price cuts Fed won't deliver

Markets & Finance

How the Treasury is quietly pumping cash into markets

Treasury cash release offsets QT

Special Report

Lunar New Year: China's reopening lifts the yuan

Reopening flows strengthen yuan

Business

Banks' easy profits are about to end

NII peak as funding costs reprice

World

Japan spends trillions to defend one number

Unlimited purchases vs speculative JGB shorts

Markets & Finance

Germany's bond shortage is finally easing

Collateral scarcity drives Bund swap spreads

Special Report

New Year's Eve: The year the classic portfolio failed

Stock-bond correlation turns positive

Economy

Is the recession alarm broken?

Term-spread models under QE-distorted curves

Special Report

Christmas: Why markets go quiet — and fragile — at year-end

Year-end balance-sheet constraints

Business

The debt bill companies have pushed to 2024

Closed HY market pushes refinancing into 2024–25

Markets & Finance

Japan surprises everyone, and bonds everywhere feel it

YCC band widening releases JGB repatriation

Economy

The Fed and the market disagree. Someone is wrong

Market-implied path vs SEP median

Markets & Finance

Has the dollar peaked?

Rate-differential peak precedes DXY reversal

Special Report

Black Friday: Shop now, pay later, default sooner

Revolving credit funds holiday spend

Markets & Finance

The bond market is screaming recession

Curve prices policy error, not growth

Economy

One good inflation report does not make a trend

Single-month relief vs persistence of core

Markets & Finance

FTX spent its customers' money. That was the business

Commingled deposits funded affiliate risk

Economy

$2trn is sitting at the Fed doing nothing

MMF cash parked at Fed drains private liquidity

Special Report

Halloween: The scariest year for bonds in memory

Fat tails in Treasury returns

Business

Meta's spending spree just cost it a quarter of its value

Capex guide without revenue path crushes multiple

Markets & Finance

Is the world's safest market becoming hard to trade?

Dealer balance-sheet limits thin Treasury depth

Special Report

Diwali: India's gold habit is weighing on the rupee

Festive gold imports widen current-account deficit

Markets & Finance

Bond investors want to be paid for waiting again

Affine model decomposition of long yields

Markets & Finance

The Bank of England takes away the safety net

Backstop expiry tests market-clearing price

Markets & Finance

Banks are stuck holding Elon Musk's Twitter debt

Committed underwriting marked below par