The Lombard Review

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Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Special Report

Tax Day: What April tells us about the deficit

Receipts vs structural deficit

Business

Bank profits hold up in a higher-for-longer world

Asset repricing offsets deposit costs

World

How far will Japan let the yen fall?

Threshold ambiguity as deterrent

Economy

Immigration changes the jobs maths

Immigration raises trend job growth

Economy

Inflation's stall isn't a seasonal fluke

Persistence, not seasonality

Business

Reddit's IPO lets the public in

Directed shares and day-one pop

World

Japan raised rates. The yen fell anyway

Carry dominates signalling

Economy

The Fed nudges its long-run rate higher

Gradual r* revision in SEP

World

Japan ends negative rates

First BoJ hike in 17 years

Business

Big Tech is now in the power business

Power contracts enter tech balance sheets

Markets & Finance

The Fed's banking lifeline expires

Loss of par collateral facility

Economy

Why job numbers keep getting revised down

Response-rate bias in initial estimates

Economy

The new normal for interest rates is higher

Fiscal and demographic drivers lift r*

Business

Capital One's real prize in Discover: the network

Closed-loop network captures interchange

Markets & Finance

Office loans are going bad

Extension risk in conduit deals

Tech

Nvidia adds $277bn in a day

Single-stock shock as factor event

Economy

Japan and Britain slip into recession

Low-growth equilibrium in advanced economies

Business

NYCB's office loans come due

Crossing $100bn raises capital needs

Special Report

Valentine's Day: The chocolate crisis

Input shock vs pricing power

Markets & Finance

A hot inflation report hits short-term bonds

Front-end reprices cut timing

Special Report

Super Bowl: Does football predict the bond market?

Folklore indicators vs yields

Special Report

Lunar New Year: China's stock market can't escape falling prices

Price deflation depresses earnings

Economy

Did inflation's progress survive the revisions?

Seasonal factor updates redistribute inflation

Economy

353,000 jobs and no March cut

Labour strength delays first cut

Business

Meta pays its first dividend

Payout initiation as maturity signal

Markets & Finance

The Treasury promises no more surprises

Forward guidance on coupon sizes

Economy

3.3% growth: too good to be true?

Output vs hours decomposition

World

Japan wants pay rises before rate rises

Shunto outcome as hike precondition

Markets & Finance

Banks pay the bill for last year's failures

Deposit-insurance recapitalisation charge

Markets & Finance

Banks borrow from the Fed to earn more from the Fed

Facility rate below IORB

Economy

Why January inflation always looks bad

Start-of-year pricing biases SA data

Economy

Shipping costs double as ships avoid the Red Sea

Cape route adds ~10 days, lifts rates

Markets & Finance

Seven stocks, almost a third of the market

Index weight concentration as systemic risk

Economy

The Fed's money drain is about to get real

RRP buffer exhaustion shifts drain to reserves

Special Report

New Year: Markets want six rate cuts. They'll be disappointed

Market path vs committee

Special Report

New Year's Eve: A dead year for deals

Financing costs freeze deals

Economy

2023: The recession that never came

Consensus recession call failed

Special Report

Boxing Day: The year-end squeeze in money markets

Bank balance-sheet shrink at year-end

Economy

Red Sea attacks threaten cheaper goods

Rerouting raises freight and lead times

Special Report

Christmas: Is the Santa rally real?

Seasonal anomaly significance

U.S.

Japan wants US Steel. Washington may say no

National-security review discounts premium

World

Japan is the last to keep rates below zero

BoJ delay sustains yen carry

Economy

The Fed pivots

Dot shift validates market

Economy

Can the Fed really cut six times?

Market path vs committee reaction function

Business

Companies rush to borrow before rates fall

Issuers term out as spreads tighten

Markets & Finance

The great bond rally

Positioning squeeze drives duration rally

Economy

Inflation is already at target, if you squint

Annualisation window changes inference

Economy

A Fed hawk hints at cuts

Real-rate drift argues for cuts

Special Report

Cyber Monday: Record spending on borrowed money

BNPL shifts consumption forward

Special Report

Black Friday: Retailers finally have the right amount of stock

Lean stock restores margin