The Lombard Review

Latest Headlines

Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Tech

OpenAI's boardroom drama and Microsoft's $13bn exposure

Nonprofit control vs investor claims

Special Report

Thanksgiving: Bond investors finally have something to be thankful for

Duration rally eases conditions

U.S.

Moody's warns on America's debt

Rating drift as slow-moving term premium

Markets & Finance

Are financial conditions tight or loose? Depends who you ask

FCI weighting drives easing signal

Economy

Inflation hits 3.2%. The last mile begins

Core disinflation stalls near 4%

Special Report

Diwali: India's festive boom runs on credit

Credit elasticity of festive spend

Special Report

Singles' Day: China's shoppers have lost their nerve

Deflation depresses spending

Business

WeWork's collapse: how leases became debt

Chapter 11 sheds lease liabilities

Markets & Finance

The Treasury borrows less than feared, and bonds soar

Supply surprise drives duration rally

Economy

The recession rule that's flashing amber

Unemployment rise triggers recession rule

Special Report

Halloween: The zombie companies are rising

Interest coverage below one

Markets & Finance

The Treasury blinks

Issuance mix shifts to bills

Tech

Alphabet spends more, grows less, and pays for it

Deceleration plus capex compresses multiple

Markets & Finance

The bond vigilantes are back

Weak bid-to-cover signals demand gap

Markets & Finance

The 10-year hits 5%. Why now?

Three-way yield decomposition

World

China's hidden local debt problem

Hidden local debt rolled via special bonds

Business

Banks' profit peak is here

AOCI drag vs rising funding costs

Markets & Finance

After the Hamas attack, the rush to safety faded fast

Geopolitics vs supply overhang

Economy

Strong jobs, falling bonds

Strong data raises real yields

U.S.

Washington's chaos now has a price

Legislative dysfunction as fiscal premium

Personal Finance

Student loans are back, and shops will feel it

Payment resumption drains spending

Markets & Finance

Long bonds are selling off for a new reason

Supply, not policy, lifts long end

Economy

The Fed takes back half its rate cuts

Removed cuts reprice curve

Economy

Is "higher for longer" already priced in?

Energy re-accelerates headline

Business

The UAW strike's bill for Detroit

Legacy labour-cost shock to OEM margins

World

How weak will Japan let the yen go?

Pace, not level, triggers intervention

Economy

Unemployment rose, for a good reason

Labour supply, not layoffs, drives rate

Special Report

Anniversary: Our first year, graded

Calls vs realised curve

Economy

Saudi Arabia keeps oil above $90

Voluntary supply cuts sustain headline

Special Report

Labor Day: The job market is cooling the right way

Vacancies fall without unemployment spike

Business

Arm's IPO: scarcity is the selling point

Low float inflates valuation

Markets & Finance

Bonds finally pay more than inflation

Positive real yields compress equity premium

Economy

Economists can't agree on where rates should settle

Filter-based vs forward-rate r*

Economy

What is the "right" interest rate anyway?

Neutral-rate drift sets terminal

World

Country Garden and the end of China's property model

Presales model breaks without new sales

Markets & Finance

China's prices are falling. Its currency could be next

Strong-side CNY fixings resist depreciation

Markets & Finance

Why long bonds pay more — two very different answers

Model specification drives decomposition

Economy

America is borrowing like it's in a recession. It isn't

Full-employment deficits pressure term premium

Markets & Finance

The Treasury needs more money, and companies will feel it

Treasury duration supply raises IG cost

Markets & Finance

America loses its AAA again. Does it matter?

Governance premium, not default risk

Economy

Is the economy really this strong?

GDP vs GDI gap

Economy

One more hike, then what?

Loss function favours holding over hiking

Markets & Finance

Why banks are selling their best loans

Capital relief via asset sales

Markets & Finance

Is Japan about to loosen its grip on bonds?

Band flexibility raises JGB term premium

Economy

Inflation hits 3%. The easy part is over

Favourable base effects exhausted

Economy

Inflation is falling without a recession. Can it last?

Supply healing without labour slack

Special Report

Prime Day: What Amazon's discounts say about inflation

Discounting confirms goods deflation

Markets & Finance

Banks passed the stress test. Now comes the real test

Endgame RWA inflation vs buyback capacity

Special Report

Independence Day: Washington is paying factories to come home

IRA/CHIPS lower hurdle rates

World

Why British homeowners feel rate rises faster than anyone

Short fixed terms transmit rates fast