The Lombard Review

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Every Lombard Review analysis, newest first: central banks, rates, currencies, credit and corporate finance.

Economy

The stubborn inflation the Fed can't shake

Autoregressive decay of services inflation

World

China's lending engine sputters

Marginal easing fails to lift credit demand

Business

Why company defaults are creeping up

Default cycle via interest burden, not covenants

World

Britain's mortgage crunch returns

UK core inflation persistence reprices front end

Economy

What the Fed's forecasts really say

Distributional reading of SEP

Economy

The Fed wants to pause without looking soft

Pause while signalling further hikes

Markets & Finance

A bull market built on seven stocks

Concentration risk in cap-weighted index

Markets & Finance

The Treasury refills its account, and markets pay

TGA rebuild sourced from RRP vs reserves

Economy

The jobs report that disagrees with itself, again

Survey divergence returns

Business

The debt deal that changes almost nothing

Spending caps vs structural deficit

Special Report

Memorial Day: The debt deal is done. Now comes the bill

Ceiling resolution reprices bills

Tech

Nvidia's forecast stuns Wall Street

Guidance shock re-rates AI infrastructure

Markets & Finance

Get ready for a flood of Treasury bills

TGA rebuild drains reserves and RRP

Personal Finance

Nobody can agree how much savings Americans have left

Trend-choice sensitivity of savings estimates

Economy

Why core inflation stopped falling

Services persistence halts disinflation

Business

Office towers face a $1.5trn refinancing problem

Refinancing at higher cap rates impairs equity

U.S.

When does America run out of money?

TGA depletion and payment prioritisation

Markets & Finance

Why regional banks lost a third of their value

Factor exposure to deposit and CRE risk

Economy

Is this the Fed's last hike?

Statement language as policy signal

Business

First Republic's final quarter: $100bn walks out the door

Outflows without par buyer force resolution

Markets & Finance

Markets start pricing an American default

Technical default priced in 1Y contracts

Economy

Tighter loans today, more defaults tomorrow

SLOOS leads charge-offs ~2 quarters

World

China is spending again. Its property market isn't

Consumption rebound absent credit impulse

Special Report

Tax Day: What April's tax cheques say about the debt ceiling

Tax receipts nowcast Treasury cash

Business

The real cost of the banking crisis: customers want interest

Non-interest deposits migrate to paid accounts

Markets & Finance

The Treasury bills nobody wants to hold

Bills near X-date trade cheap

Economy

Watching deposits leave in real time

Weekly deposit data as lending signal

Economy

OPEC just made the Fed's job harder

Energy shock re-anchors headline inflation

Markets & Finance

First Republic has been rescued. It hasn't been saved

Liquidity support without solvency fix

Markets & Finance

Savers flee banks for money funds

MMF yields outpace deposit rates

Markets & Finance

Why Credit Suisse bondholders lost everything before shareholders

Write-down ahead of equity breaks capital stack

Economy

Are bank failures doing the Fed's job for it?

Credit contraction substitutes for tightening

Markets & Finance

The Fed's quiet bailout of banks' bad bond bets

Par collateral valuation removes fire-sale loss

Markets & Finance

After SVB, the biggest bond rally since 1987

Flight to quality meets policy repricing

Markets & Finance

How a bank run happens at the speed of an app

Uninsured, concentrated deposits run digitally

Economy

Powell signals bigger hikes are back

Testimony reprices step-size

Markets & Finance

America's banks are sitting on $620bn of hidden losses

Unrealised losses hidden by accounting

Markets & Finance

Could rates really hit 6%?

Higher-for-longer compresses cut pricing

Economy

When the data changes after the decision

Revisions distort rule-implied rate

Economy

Did shoppers really spend 3% more in January?

January seasonal adjustment inflates spending

Markets & Finance

Private credit's borrowers are feeling the squeeze

Coverage falls as SOFR resets

Markets & Finance

Short-term bonds are having a terrible month

Front end reprices terminal, long end anchored

Special Report

Valentine's Day: Markets still love rate cuts. The Fed doesn't love them back

Markets price cuts Fed won't deliver

Special Report

Super Bowl: $7m for 30 seconds, and what it says about confidence

Ad spend as confidence gauge

Economy

Last year's inflation just got rewritten

Factor revisions shift inflation timing

Economy

517,000 jobs and the end of the rate-cut dream

Labour tightness forces terminal repricing

Tech

Meta's new growth story: buying back its own shares

Capital return re-rates cost-cut narrative

Markets & Finance

How the Treasury is quietly pumping cash into markets

Treasury cash release offsets QT

Economy

The economy grew 2.9%. Demand barely grew at all

Inventory and trade noise mask weak demand

U.S.

America hits its debt limit again. The countdown starts

Extraordinary measures drain TGA