What the Fed's forecasts really say
Distributional reading of SEP
The Summary of Economic Projections released at the Federal Reserve’s June meeting was an exercise in quantitative defiance. By holding the benchmark rate steady while elevating the median terminal projection to 5.6 per cent, the FOMC delivered a statistical gut punch to rate-cut optimists. Two additional quarter-point hikes were inscribed into the median path, signalling that the committee regards resilient underlying activity as a direct threat to its disinflationary trajectory.
The Hawkish Dot Matrix
A distributional examination of the dot plot reveals an FOMC whose hawkish wing has seized the analytical narrative. The upward revision to core PCE projections indicates that policymakers no longer believe goods disinflation will painlessly drag services inflation to target. The terminal rate is not merely rising; it is cementing itself at a higher altitude for a longer duration.
The Fed’s upwardly revised dot plot serves notice that policymakers view economic resilience not as an achievement to celebrate, but as an inflationary imbalance that requires sustained monetary punishment.